Consequences of Climate Change

List of Issues: What Will Happen if We Do Nothing?

What if we do nothing? When climate change appears in the news, there's often some new study proclaiming a newly-discovered consequence of climate change, and people brush it off. Maybe it doesn't affect them personally. Does a person in Kansas really care about the Icelandic Ice Sheet? Many do not, and I understand why. I've noticed a lack of a list of all the problems that will happen with a changing climate. So I'm trying to compile this list, which includes many, but not all of the consequences of global warming.

About the List

Some of these things are already beginning to occur, or will occur. This is because we have already crossed certain lines that have concerned Scientists, such as the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases are eliminated very slowly by natural processes, so emissions from today will be of concern for decades. Even if we stopped emissions today or cut them dramatically, we will see ocean levels rise and global temperatures climb. The thing we don't know is how high sea levels and global temperatures will become.

Other hypothetical concerns of climate change are listed here not to alarm people, but rather to include theories that have merit and are logically or scientifically backed. Even if some things do not happen, we should be aware of the possibilities and give them consideration for the purposes of policy, city planning, activism, and adapting new technologies that can offset the damage of the past.

Global Warming

This deserves to be listed first. It causes literally everything below, and it's the thing we are most certain is already happening. Sure, they changed the name to climate change, but global warming is the issue driving that change and is a problem in and of itself. Due to greenhouse gases, sunlight that enters Earth's atmosphere does not 'bounce' out and gradually heats the planet. The more of these gases present, the warmer Earth will become. This is the primary driver of climate change. A warmer planet means climates in various areas will change, allowing new pests to attack crops, changing weather patterns, ocean acidification, and melting glaciers and permafrost causing rising sea levels that change the habitability and location of the planet's coasts.

Sea Levels Rise, Submerging Coastal Cities

Sea levels are rising. This is the most commonly reported issue caused by global warming, and it does cause some of the other issues listed below. Permafrost and land-based ice is melting into the ocean, causing the sea to rise each year. With higher sea levels, low-lying coastal areas will be underwater and unsuitable for cities. This includes many coastal cities, some with huge populations, with large swaths of land uninhabitable, and forcing people to move inland. Cities like New Orleans may be impacted, while whole countries like The Netherlands are actually below sea level and will rely heavily on their existing dikes to keep out the sea.

It will not happen abruptly, and if the sea doesn't rise enough, it won't happen. But a gradual migration from affected cities can be expected if the sea rises enough. Sea levels at the moment are only rising at a rate of 3.3 millimeters per year. However, as warming intensifies, with longer Summers and shorter Winters in places like Greenland and the Arctic, we are likely to see that rate increase. Barriers such as levees may help to prevent this from impacting cities in some areas. Total sea level rise could be between 1 and 2 meters (up to 6.5 feet) by the year 2100 according to some models, while others have a more concerning outlook. It is troubling to realize that some of these projections could fail to accurately capture the effects of increased warming, although there are many factors in play. See sealevel.nasa.gov for the current rate of rise, ocean mass, and changes in the ice mass of Greenland and Antarctica.

Flooding is More Likely

Even in areas where the sea level's increase will not reach the city, hurricanes and other storms will make catastrophic flooding more likely simply due to being closer to the water level. Hurricanes, for example, cause storm surges - a swell of water that moves ahead of the storm - and these surges will have an easier time flooding cities, whether the storm is category 3 or 5.

Something not commonly considered about sea level rise are those cities that are connected to the sea by rivers are also at risk of being under water. However a more likely scenario for them is that flooding will occur more frequently with higher rivers. The water level rising causes flooding, period. Read about tidal floding, when it's windy and the tide is high, some areas already face small floods.

Stronger Storms from a Warmer Ocean

Storms thrive on warmth. Warm water is literally the power source of hurricanes and typhoons, as well as storms such as Nor'easters. As temperatures rise, more moisture is pulled into the air, which has an impact on the amounts of precipitation produced by weather such as thunderstorms and blizzards. When the right conditions arise, stroms will be stronger and cause more loss of life. Meteorologists and Climatologists do not point to specific storms and say, "This is because of global warming." That does not mean that some of them aren't, they are just being honest in that we do not know for a fact which storms would've occurred anyway. We know the power sources of storms, therefore we can conclude that conditions will be better for strong storms. See Thinkprogress: "Why Big Blizzards Don't Disprove Global Warming.

Ocean Acidification & You

No, the ocean isn't going to turn to acid - but it is becoming more acidic as the pH of the world's saltwater goes lower. The oceans help protect us from greenhouse gases by absorbing some CO2 - when they do, a chemical reaction occurs that makes the ocean more acidic (as opposed to base). The acidity of the ocean has increased by as much as 30%, and some of the creatures that live there are very sensitive to this change, which may greatly affect our food supply and endanger many species. The reason it is so important is due to the food chain - certain species being incompatible with the acidic water and dying off causes less food to be available to the creatures that rely on them for a food source, and the creatures that rely on them, and ultimately humanity as much of the world's food comes from the ocean. We are part of a food web. We're just lucky enough to be on top. A billion people rely on food from the ocean, thus ocean acidification is a serious concern.

Changing Climates: Drought

Strong storms can be problematic for mankind, but something worse may occur from warmer temperatures and a changing climate: drought. One region may get heavy rainfall, while another sees the water dry up. To young people who skipped science class, drought is declared when there is a long-term lack of rainfall or other precipitation that produces the water supply. Many of us have never noticed how bad a drought can be, but a farmer can tell you how it feels. Their crops need water, and so too do their animals. Some farmers are 100% reliant on mother nature to water their crop, and this is one reason drought can be devastating to humanity.

Water is necessary for plants to grow and to keep humans, their livestock, and pets hydrated. It is essential for the survival of every plant and animal on Earth. Because of climate change and greater temperatures, dry areas will become even more dry and are likely to expand in size. With heat, evaporation occurs more easily, and that evaporated water is transported elsewhere. Some areas will become dry when they were not previously. I know people may read, "Stronger storms" and assume this is somehow a contradiction. However one storm in a dry area is not enough for plants to grow. Drought from climate change may be happening now and is not expected to get better, although it is certainly possible that drought in some areas will let up for a time. We are experiencing a gradual change in climate, not an on-off switch.

Read more about Drought as related to climate change here.

Extinction

Not us. Species that we depend on for food and prop up ecosystems, are at risk of extinction. As the weather and heat patterns change, entire areas of the world are seeing migrations of animals seeking food or a different climate, while others lose their food supply and die off. The situation is so bad that we are in the midst of the world's sixth mass extinction of plants and animals: see here. Sadly it's not that we can do much about this on such a wide scale, but it is clear that things growing worse will only wipe out more species.

Wildfires

This is primarily due to drought. As forests dry, they become more flammable - dangerously flammable. One spark, and an entire forest can burn and roll through everything around it. As drought grows more common in some places, or weather patterns change, we are likely to experience wildfires more frequently and the loss of life and property that come with them.

Heatwaves

Scientists have actually seen a reduction in the number of deaths from cold weather, but an increase in the number of people who die to heat waves. It's very simple to imagine that if it is warm in an area, and global temperatures rise, it's going to be warmer. Areas in the South (if you're in the Northern Hemisphere) are hotter. Their temperatures will rise, along with all other places during the peak of Summer. The odds of a dangerously hot day will rise due to climate change. The poor, the elderly, and children are most susceptible to death by hyperthermia.

Pests - Attacking Food Supply, Ecosystems, and Forests

There are numerous factors involved here, so I'm going to simplify it - biologists and entomologists need to know the details, but we don't. First, warmer winters will kill off less insects, allowing their population to explode. Second, and perhas worse, they will also go to new places to look for food. Places where there are no natural predators. They run rampant, and attack crops as well as forests in some cases. This will be another blow to our global food supply, the bottom line for farmers, and further disrupt ecosystems. This does not only include pests that eat crops, but also fungi and diseases that attack trees and lead to deforestation. Read Nature.com for more information.